Skip to content

Large Caps

Sep 07 2019

We’re All Economists Now!

  • Sep 7, 2019

It’s now been more than 19 months since global stocks peaked on January 26th, 2018. Those lucky enough to have been invested solely in the S&P 500 and to have held on for the volatile ride have a 3.7% gain to show for it. Nice going.

Jul 06 2018

Try This On For Size

  • Jul 6, 2018

Today’s market is barbelled regarding company size, with the mega-cap Tech stocks and the S&P 600 Small Cap index both outperforming the middle of the S&P 500.

Apr 07 2016

Small Cap vs Mid Cap vs Large Cap

  • Apr 7, 2016

After spending two months in discount territory, in March the Ratio of Ratios headed closer to its historical median premium of 4%.

Jul 08 2015

Navigating The First Rate Hike

  • Jul 8, 2015

Our current view is the lift-off will be December or later. Assuming inflation will pick up and the Fed hikes the rate by the end of 2015, stocks will perform relatively well, with international stocks a better bet than U.S. stocks.

Nov 07 2014

Stocks Vs. The Dollar—More Complicated Than You Think

  • Nov 7, 2014

The recent strength in the dollar coincided with a spike in volatility and weakness in risky assets, but the relationship over the last couple years has been tenuous at best.

Apr 07 2014

Small/Mid/Large Caps

  • Apr 7, 2014

Small Cap Premium Bounces Back To 23%

Mar 06 2014

Small/Mid/Large Caps

  • Mar 6, 2014

Small Caps are selling at a 20% valuation premium relative to Large Caps (23% last month), using non-normalized trailing operating earnings.

Feb 07 2014

Small/Mid/Large Caps

  • Feb 7, 2014

Small Cap Premium Continues Upward To 23%. Large Caps Lead On The Downside In January

Feb 07 2014

Small Cap Update

  • Feb 7, 2014

Small Caps are close enough to a new relative strength high that it’s possible a final revision might be necessary before the Small Cap tide flows out.

Jan 08 2014

Small/Mid/Large Caps

  • Jan 8, 2014

Small Cap Premium Continues Upward To 21%. The red-hot equity market of 2013 was especially good for Small Caps with a +38.8% total return.

Jan 08 2014

Buy The Bridesmaid, Not The One Looking To Rebound

  • Jan 8, 2014

The investment leadership of a given year has historically had better-than-even odds of outperforming in the following year at both the asset class and equity sector levels.

Dec 06 2013

Small/Mid/Large Cap Internals

  • Dec 6, 2013

Small Caps are selling at a 20% valuation premium relative to Large Caps, using non-normalized trailing operating earnings.

Nov 07 2013

Small Cap Premium Ticks Up To 16%

  • Nov 7, 2013

Small Caps are selling at a 16% valuation premium relative to Large Caps, using non-normalized trailing operating earnings. Using estimated operating earnings, Small Caps are selling at a higher valuation premium of 23% (25% last month).

Nov 07 2013

How Long Can Small Caps Lead?

  • Nov 7, 2013

The Russell 2000 is about five points ahead of Large Caps YTD, and is approaching its April 2011 long-term relative peak. We view this outperformance as their leadership’s last gasp and not a new cycle.

Oct 08 2013

Small/Mid/Large Caps - Small Cap Premium Slips To 14%

  • Oct 8, 2013

Small Caps are selling at a 14% valuation premium relative to Large Caps, using non-normalized trailing operating earnings. This is down slightly from last month, and ranks in the 91st percentile of the 1983-to-date history of this measurement.

Sep 10 2013

Small Caps Lead Year-To-Date

  • Sep 10, 2013

Large Caps lost 2.9% (total return) in August, just ahead of Small Caps (-3.2%) and Mid Caps (-3.8%). YTD, Small Caps continue to perform ahead of the other two subsets.

Sep 10 2013

Small Cap Premium Remains 15%

  • Sep 10, 2013

Small Caps are selling at a 15% valuation premium relative to Large Caps, using non-normalized trailing operating earnings. This is the same as the past two months’ readings. Using estimated 2013 operating earnings, Small Caps are selling at a higher valuation premium of 23% (24% last month).

Sep 10 2013

Sector Margins: Just Thank The Consumer

  • Sep 10, 2013

We’ve noted before that profit margin gains since the technology boom have been primarily a Large Cap phenomenon.

Aug 07 2013

Small Caps Lead Year-To-Date

  • Aug 7, 2013

Large Caps gained 5.1% (total return) in July, lagging Small Caps (+7.0%) and Mid Caps (+6.2%). YTD, Small Caps are now ahead of the other two subsets, and Large Caps are the laggards.

Aug 07 2013

Small Cap Premium Remains 15%

  • Aug 7, 2013

Small Caps are selling at a 15% valuation premium relative to Large Caps, using non-normalized trailing operating earnings. This is the same as last month’s reading. Using estimated 2013 operating earnings, Small Caps are selling at a higher valuation premium of 24% (25% last month).

May 01 2013

The Disappearing "Large" Effect And Emerging Market Performance

  • May 1, 2013

While U.S. stocks have surged this year, Emerging Markets have languished. What is going on in Emerging  Markets to cause this unusual situation?

Apr 05 2013

Quality As An Investable Stock Selection Concept

  • Apr 5, 2013

In this note, we discuss our market-level measure of quality, and highlight an expanded methodology for determining the “quality” of a stock and the performance implications associated with such a concept.

Mar 06 2012

Small Cap Stocks: Hard To Make The Numbers Work…

  • Mar 6, 2012

Leuthold’s Doug Ramsey takes an in depth look at historical Small and Large Cap cycles and offers insight as to where we stand now and what can be expected going forward.

 

Feb 05 2012

Predictions for 2012…

  • Feb 5, 2012

From the stock market to politics to football, Doug Ramsey offers up ten predictions and thoughts for the New Year…. Even though we’ve already had a one month “peek” at 2012.

 

Dec 06 2011

Profit Margins: As Good As It Gets

  • Dec 6, 2011

Current record high corporate Profit Margins examined in this month’s “Of Special Interest.” Topics include the sustainability of the trend, commodities as profit trackers, margins as a potential forecasting tool and discussion on profits by sector and market cap. 

 

 

Jan 04 2010

Large Cap Versus Small Cap: Performance Parity 1979 To Date

  • Jan 4, 2010

Over this entire period, the S&P has narrowly beaten the Russell 2000, but not by much.

Jun 03 2008

The New Nifty Fifty—Time To Become A Believer Again?

  • Jun 3, 2008

These once elite companies have continued to turn in good earnings growth. The problem had been that the prices had moved far too high. After a few years of declining prices, the valuations are once again looking very compelling.

 

Jun 05 2007

Large-Cap Growth: Could A Long Wait Get Even Longer??

  • Jun 5, 2007

Valuations set the stage for better performance out of growth.  But it is important to note that there’s precedent for the value cycle—seemingly already overextended in time and price—to get much more extended. 

Jan 04 2006

Did You Have The Right Mix In 2005?

  • Jan 4, 2006

2005 Performance Recap: Equities, Fixed Income, Large Vs. Small Caps, Weighted Vs. Unweighted S&P 500, Industrial Metals and AdvantHedge.

Jul 04 2005

Advance/Decline Line & Price Line Divergences Offer Guidance

  • Jul 4, 2005

Using Breadth Dynamics to assess strength of small cap stocks versus large cap stocks within various broad market sectors: Health Care, Materials, Consumer Discretionary, and Energy.

Jan 05 2005

Large Cap Versus Small Cap

  • Jan 5, 2005

Small caps continue to be the market leaders over large caps. This trend is expected to continue into 2005, as our small cap leadership model has recently improved, and is now rated slightly positive.

Sep 05 2004

Large Cap Growth Versus Large Cap Value

  • Sep 5, 2004

Large Cap Growth stocks are relatively cheap compared to Large Cap Value stocks. The next major trend should be in Large Cap Growth.

Jun 01 2004

Small vs. Large Cap Leadership...Small Cap Domination Also Getting Late In The Game

  • Jun 1, 2004

Still prefer the Small caps over Large caps, despite the fact that small caps are now selling at 1% premium relative to large caps, and that the small cap leadership phase is getting long in the tooth.

Jan 05 2004

Equity Performance By Market Cap Tiers

  • Jan 5, 2004

Weighted versus Unweighted S&P 500 comparison, Russell 2000 versus S&P 500 annual comparison and 2003 equity performance by market cap tiers.

Nov 05 2003

A Closer Look At Small Caps Versus Large Caps

  • Nov 5, 2003

Weight of evidence no longer overwhelmingly favors Small Cap leadership, but we believe they still have upside potential.

Oct 05 2003

Client Questions

  • Oct 5, 2003

Answering client questions on the economic recovery, bull market upside, valuations, Main Street and what could go wrong?

Jan 05 2003

Answering Client Questions

  • Jan 5, 2003

Many of the questions in this month’s issue came from December’s client meetings in Chicago.

Jan 05 2003

Large Cap Versus Small Cap: Inside The S&P 500

  • Jan 5, 2003

Poor performance by large cap technology and nifty fifty type issues had a very negative impact on S&P 500 cap weighted performers for the past three years.

Dec 04 2002

January Effect: Now Arrives In December

  • Dec 4, 2002

Buy now to play January effect. Every year, over the last ten years, small caps have beaten the large caps in December!

Feb 05 2002

Why We Still Favor Small Caps Over Large Caps

  • Feb 5, 2002

Prior history shows average period of small cap dominance is about five years...longer than that experienced in the 1990s.