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Leadership

Dec 07 2018

It’s Not A Pause… It’s “Paws”

  • Dec 7, 2018

A bear market will almost always prove to be the catalyst of one or more shifts in long-term market leadership.

Jul 07 2018

The Bulls And Bears Agree!

  • Jul 7, 2018

Yes, bulls and bears now hold their respective positions for the same reason—i.e., the U.S. economy is exceptionally strong. The stock market is accommodating this rare bipartisanship with sufficient reason to support either position.

May 18 2018

Is Small Cap Leadership Bullish?

  • May 18, 2018

The Russell 2000 closed above its January 26th high on Wednesday, and well beforehand bulls had seized upon the secondary stocks’ leadership as evidence that all is right again with both the U.S. economy and stock market...

Mar 08 2018

The Ups and Downs of 2018

  • Mar 8, 2018

Ten weeks into 2018, we have already seen three mini-cycles in U.S. equities. A rip-roaring surge in January was followed in early February by one of the shortest corrections in history...

Feb 07 2018

Most Likely Just A Correction

  • Feb 7, 2018

So, what happened to the January Barometer—the old analyst’s maxim that a market gain in January portends a gain for the full year?

Jul 08 2016

Stock Market Observations

  • Jul 8, 2016

With the S&P 500 levitating near its all-time high, stock market leadership is peculiar—characterized by a flight to quality. And, despite the market’s violent bounce off February lows, there have been only four new market highs set by key indexes on our “Bull Market Top Timeline” table.

Mar 08 2016

Foreign Stocks Set For A New “Bear”-ing?

  • Mar 8, 2016

Based on comparative valuations alone, one could have made a case for investing in foreign stocks over domestic ones as early as 2010—when EAFE’s valuations sunk to an historical low, relative to the S&P 500. Today, that gap remains extreme.

Nov 06 2015

“Top In” Or “Topping Out?”

  • Nov 6, 2015

The stock market rally has carried far enough to flip some of our trend-following work bullish, lifting the Major Trend Index to a low-neutral reading. The improvement prompted an increase in asset allocation portfolios’ net equity exposure to 42% (up from 36% previously).

Nov 06 2015

Stock Market Observations

  • Nov 6, 2015

This bull market has appeared to be on shaky technical ground before, only for concerns to be swept aside. This time, we think it’s different.

Aug 07 2015

On High Alert

  • Aug 7, 2015

August is “National Eye Exam Month,” but this is the rare year we can confidently recommend that you skip it.

Aug 07 2015

Weakening Foundation

  • Aug 7, 2015

Over the last few months, we’ve presented a couple of simple quantitative studies meant to encapsulate the factors driving our Major Trend Index to the brink of bear territory. The chart and table might provide the best summary yet.

Aug 07 2015

Fed Watching For The 21st Century

  • Aug 7, 2015

Deteriorating stock market breadth and worrisome leadership trends both suggest liquidity has already tightened; whether the Fed follows suit in September may now be just a formality.

Jul 08 2015

Leadership: Winning Begets Winning

  • Jul 8, 2015

Many assume that stocks and industries exhibiting high price momentum suffer disproportionately during the eventual bear market. Surprisingly, the high momentum stock portfolio has suffered an average bear market loss that’s about a quarter less than that of the low momentum portfolio.

May 08 2015

Flying By Instruments

  • May 8, 2015

The safest highs to sell in the stock market are “lonely” new highs. Fortunately, the April 24th bull market high in the S&P 500 was anything but, as that index enjoyed a varied swath of Large Cap, Small Cap, and foreign company (although the DJIA was a mysterious no-show).

May 08 2015

Two Takes On The Ticker Tape

  • May 8, 2015

Conventional breadth measures show the U.S. market to be healthy, with key indexes confirming the April 24th S&P 500 high. However, sector leadership is behaving in a way that’s consistent with an approaching market top.

May 08 2015

High Quality Stock Leadership Stalled

  • May 8, 2015

Last time we updated this work, we were surprised by how much High Quality stocks had outperformed. In Q4 2014, High Quality stocks were up 9.6%, while Low Quality stocks had edged up only marginally (+0.3%).

Feb 06 2015

2015 Leadership: An Early Take

  • Feb 6, 2015

Last year’s economically defensive winners held their grip on stock market leadership in January. This action is consistent with our view that the bull market is an aged, overvalued one that has begun a final “distribution” process that will eventually erupt into a cyclical bear.

Jan 08 2015

Small Caps: A New Ratio!

  • Jan 8, 2015

Small Caps lagged the S&P 500 by almost ten percentage points in 2014, but their underperformance streak technically dates back to April 2011. Nonetheless, their cumulative, 45-month underperformance in relation to the S&P 500 (now about –18%) is still modest enough that any mention of the current “Large Cap Leadership Cycle” is bound to draw a few head scratches.

Dec 05 2014

Stock Market Observations

  • Dec 5, 2014

Market gains have been less broad than in 2012 and 2013; market direction and leadership have been mismatched; and quantitative factors have been choppy.

Dec 05 2014

Can The Dollar Save Small Caps?

  • Dec 5, 2014

The dollar’s moonshot in recent months has resuscitated a stock market leadership argument we haven’t heard for a long time.

Dec 05 2014

The Surprising Winners In Emerging Markets

  • Dec 5, 2014

While we expect an eventual break in this relationship, today Emerging Market equities are following, fairly tightly, the cycle of industrial commodities—a cycle that rolled over (on a secular basis, we believe) in 2011.

Nov 07 2014

What To Make Of Market Leadership

  • Nov 7, 2014

The renewed embrace of risk hasn’t extended to the sector level. After resisting decline in late September through mid-October, defensive sectors have matched the rebound in Cyclicals, almost point for point.

Sep 10 2013

Market Internals: The Good And The Bad

  • Sep 10, 2013

Leadership isn’t warning of impending weakness in either the U.S. economy or the stock market. Market breadth, on the other hand, is highlighting risks that aren’t evident when inspecting leadership alone.

Aug 07 2013

The Economy And Earnings

  • Aug 7, 2013

The YTD surge of 19% in the S&P 500 should ensure a stronger second half economy, and the big five-point jump in the latest Purchasing Managers Survey (ISM) might be the first evidence of this.

May 01 2013

Leadership: More Of The Same?

  • May 1, 2013

Market valuations and investor sentiment are a bit too inflated for our comfort, but the catalyst of the MTI’s drop to Neutral status two weeks ago was simply the action of the stock market itself. Specifically, we haven’t liked the disjointed nature of U.S. market action since about mid-March, where high-yielding and economically-defensive stocks have done the heavy lifting in the Dow and S&P 500 moves to all-time highs. This isn’t so much a change in leadership as an acceleration of an existing trend, and it’s now pronounced enough to weigh down a few of our technical measures.

Dec 06 2011

Nice Gains… But In The Wrong Groups

  • Dec 6, 2011

Sure looks like a bear market rally rather than start of new bull market. Many global indexes still down 20% or more from peak levels.

 

Sep 04 2009

Thoughts On Long-Term Leadership

  • Sep 4, 2009

Bubble groups rarely return as market leaders until after experiencing a prolonged trading range pattern. Technology currently appears to have paid its dues and could develop into the next market leader.

Apr 04 2009

Reasons To Own More Stocks

  • Apr 4, 2009

Looking for reasons to own more stocks? Doug Ramsey has a whole bunch of them.

Aug 05 2006

High P/E Stocks: Becoming A Safe Place To Hide?

  • Aug 5, 2006

Value continues to have leadership position over Growth among Large Cap stocks. Mid Caps also shifting to favor Value, but Growth still leading in the Small Cap tier.

Jul 04 2006

Market Leaders Examined...The First Shall Become The Last

  • Jul 4, 2006

Stocks that had performed the best over the previous 11 month period got punished the worst in the declining market.

Jun 05 2006

May's Market Action

  • Jun 5, 2006

“Sell in May, then go away” goes that old piece of Wall Street wisdom. Problem is, this year everybody seemed to sell in May, so going away doesn’t seem like such a good idea anymore.

Jan 04 2006

Did You Have The Right Mix In 2005?

  • Jan 4, 2006

2005 Performance Recap: Equities, Fixed Income, Large Vs. Small Caps, Weighted Vs. Unweighted S&P 500, Industrial Metals and AdvantHedge.

Nov 05 2005

Turning Japanese? A Look At The Rally In Japan Shares And How To Play The Turnaround

  • Nov 5, 2005

A look at the rally in Japan shares, and how to potentially play a turnaround.

Mar 05 2005

Small Cap Breadth Deterioration…..A Transition To Large Cap Leadership?

  • Mar 5, 2005

Still think Small Caps have leadership position over Large Caps, but it is getting more difficult.

Feb 05 2005

Leuthold Small Cap Leadership Model: Still Rated Slightly Positive

  • Feb 5, 2005

Small caps continue to be favored over large caps by our Small Cap Leadership Model, despite slightly lagging the large caps in January’s performance.

Jan 05 2005

Large Cap Versus Small Cap

  • Jan 5, 2005

Small caps continue to be the market leaders over large caps. This trend is expected to continue into 2005, as our small cap leadership model has recently improved, and is now rated slightly positive.

Dec 05 2004

Leuthold Small Cap Leadership Model: Improved, But Still Rated Neutral

  • Dec 5, 2004

Small cap stocks continue to be market leaders in November. Our small cap leadership model had a slight improvement, but is still neutral. On a valuation basis, small caps are no longer attractive, but they still look good on a momentum basis.

Nov 03 2004

Leuthold Small Cap Leadership Model: Less Negative, But Still Rated Neutral

  • Nov 3, 2004

We have been proponents of Small Cap stocks since the beginning of the bear market. However, we may be approaching a transition to Large Cap leadership.

Oct 05 2004

Leuthold Small Cap Leadership Model: Less Negative, But Still Rated Neutral

  • Oct 5, 2004

Small Caps were big winners in September, but our Small Cap/Large Cap leadership model is still neutral (despite a slight improvement in October). Transition to Large Cap leadership is likely in coming months, but momentum continues to favor Small Caps.

Sep 05 2004

Leuthold Ten Factor Small Cap Leadership Model Update: Still Neutral

  • Sep 5, 2004

Small Cap stocks lagged Large Caps in July and August. Possibly getting close to a formal transition in which Large Caps take over the leadership role.