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Bull Markets

May 06 2022

Unfinished Business

  • May 6, 2022

Our tongue-in-cheek celebration of the bull market’s second birthday in late March looks premature. But the “Terrible Twos” we warned about have erupted in full force.

Jan 08 2021

What If It’s Just A “Median” Bull?

  • Jan 8, 2021

Last spring and summer, we were incorrectly skeptical that a new bull had been born only five weeks after the death of oldest bull ever. But be careful with labels. Just as the “bear market” mindset caused us to overplay our hand last spring, equity bulls should not assume the current bull will look anything like the decade-long affairs we’ve seen twice in the last 30 years.

Jan 08 2021

Passive’s “Placid Pandemic Performance”

  • Jan 8, 2021

The 200-day “report card” for this bull market shows the best initial-performance gain of all postwar bulls, but it’s come at a price. Investor sentiment is above levels seen at the same point of past bull markets… and there are the valuations. 

May 07 2020

A Bounce Without “Oomph”

  • May 7, 2020

One would think that one of the most explosive market rallies of all time would trip-off all the traditional “breadth thrust” signals, or maybe even invent a few of its own. Sorry, no luck.

Dec 07 2017

Stock Market Observations

  • Dec 7, 2017

Economic and momentum considerations have kept us mostly aboard this bull for much longer than our value-seeking inner selves would have otherwise allowed.

Mar 07 2017

A Subdued 8th Birthday Celebration

  • Mar 7, 2017

The hoopla falls short of that which surrounded birthdays #3-#7; based on the flood of assets into passive stock funds, it appears complacency has set in. Current bull close to becoming longest in history.

Dec 07 2016

Putting “Our Spin” On The Positive Spin

  • Dec 7, 2016

Bull markets seem to create their own moods that lead to fundamental developments being viewed in a mostly favorable light.

Sep 08 2016

A Semi-Annual Checkup!

  • Sep 8, 2016

Call off the mortician, and bring on the pediatrician for the bull market’s 7 1/2-year checkup this month.

Dec 08 2015

TIME: The Hidden Market Risk?

  • Dec 8, 2015

Is there a statistical relationship between the height scaled by a given bull market and its subsequent decline? That correlation is in fact pretty tenuous, we’ve found.

Dec 06 2013

The Bull In Historical Context

  • Dec 6, 2013

The cyclical bull market is approaching its fifth birthday. Should you be nervous? Yes, but not so much because of its age.

Feb 06 2013

New Highs, And Then What?

  • Feb 6, 2013

We are in clear view of the “Twin Peaks” S&P 500 highs of the last decade and these should be eclipsed by mid-year. But when the S&P 500 is adjusted for inflation or denominated in Swiss Francs or Gold these highs may prove elusive.



Feb 06 2013

Ringing In The New Year On A Wide Range Of Topics

  • Feb 6, 2013

Did we just get a Technical “all clear” sign? Is the trading day getting you down? What about corporate earnings, or sovereign debt and the stock market?


May 04 2012

Will Public Buying "Drive" New Market Highs?

  • May 4, 2012

U.S. focused equity mutual funds see continued net outflows. A look back at mutual fund flows during past bull markets answers whether public participation is required to reach new stock market highs….And does a bigger Bear market equate to a bigger Bull market recovery?

Mar 06 2012

New Bull Market - Or Up-Leg In An Old Bull?

  • Mar 6, 2012

Bull markets following economic versus “non-economic” bear markets—what’s the difference?


Nov 05 2011

Ain’t Nobody Happy

  • Nov 5, 2011

Despite the big October rebound, Doug Ramsey examines various market players and finds that dissatisfaction with recent market moves may proliferate among all but a select few.

Aug 04 2011

Major Trend Index (MTI) Goes Negative: Get Defensive

  • Aug 4, 2011

Major Trend Index fell to Negative at beginning of August. Assumption is that we are now in the beginning of a cyclical bear market that may produce a 20%-25% loss within the next six months or so.


May 04 2010

The Dreaded ‘Aha’ Moment

  • May 4, 2010

One of the great contrary trades in recent memory may well have been the Consumer Discretionary stocks during the last recession and early in the recovery. The consumer had been written off, but these stocks have been the clear market leader. It looks, however, like the move may be running out of steam.

Apr 05 2010

Another Market Milestone

  • Apr 5, 2010

It is sobering to consider that an historic, 13-month market stampede (one now exceeding 75%) has done nothing more than restore the market to levels first seen twelve years ago.

Apr 05 2010

Bull Market Milestones: How the Current Bull Stacks Up to Past Cycles

  • Apr 5, 2010

This month’s “Of Special Interest” examines the characteristics of past bull market recoveries. Using a variety of historical comparisons, the current recovery is put into some perspective. The majority of these comparisons seem to indicate the current recovery still has a ways to go.

Dec 05 2009

Symptoms of a Maturing Bull Market—Assessing Potential Remaining Upside

  • Dec 5, 2009

In this month’s “Of Special Interest”, Eric and Doug put the current market in historical context. They use a variety of factors to assess the potential for further upside.

Mar 05 2007

Breadth & Leadership: Bull Markets Rarely (S)Top On A Dime

  • Mar 5, 2007

Market breadth moved down in tandem with stock market indices, but is not showing any divergences. All advance/decline lines were making new highs just before the downturn, and bull markets do not end with advance/decline data posting new highs.

Jan 04 2006

Stock Market Recovery….Typical In Duration, But Maybe Not In Terms Of Performance

  • Jan 4, 2006

Based on post WWII stock market recoveries, the current recovery could have some more upside (12% possibly).

Nov 05 2005

Third Year Of Bull Market...Now Well Beyond Range Of Typical Bull Market Cycle Peaks

  • Nov 5, 2005

A comparison of the performance of the current stock market recovery to the monthly performance averages of past recoveries (1900 to date).

Oct 05 2005

Third Year Of Bull Market...Now Well Beyond Range Of Typical Bull Market Cycle Peaks

  • Oct 5, 2005

Comparison the performance of the current stock market recovery to the monthly performance averages of past recoveries (1900 to date).

Sep 05 2005

Third Year Of Bull Market...Assessing The Current Cycle From A Historical Perspective

  • Sep 5, 2005

A comparison of the performance of the current stock market recovery to the monthly performance averages of past recoveries (1900 to date).

Jul 04 2005

Third Year Of Bull Market...Assessing The Current Cycle From Several Perspectives

  • Jul 4, 2005

A comparison of the performance of the current stock market recovery to the monthly performance averages of past recoveries (1900 to date and post-WWII era).

Dec 05 2004

View From The North Country

  • Dec 5, 2004

Steve’s assessment of the current bullish and bearish factors. Also, Leuthold’s recent discussion of secular bear markets, sparked some debate among readers.

Oct 05 2004

Getting Later In The Game For The Bull Run

  • Oct 5, 2004

Getting late in the game for the bull run. This is no longer a young bull market, but we continue to believe the market can still move higher from here.

Jun 01 2004

The Certainty Of Uncertainty

  • Jun 1, 2004

Uncertainty in Iraq, terrorist threats, rising inflation, and higher interest rates (and Fed tightening) have taken center stage against a backdrop of impressive corporate earnings momentum and economic recovery.

Sep 03 2003

Following The Script?

  • Sep 3, 2003

Yes September is most frequent month to produce declines, but average loss has been only a paltry 1.3%. Also, Septembers following bear market lows (like this year) actually produced strong performance.

Aug 05 2003

View From The North Country

  • Aug 5, 2003

Stage is set for market’s next advance, breaking out of its two month consolidation.

Apr 05 2003

View From The North Country

  • Apr 5, 2003

“View From The North Country” this month highlights several prior periods of “scary” market environments. In retrospect, all provided excellent buying opportunities.

Jan 05 2003

The Year That Was

  • Jan 5, 2003

Remain bullish on the stock market, but don’t expect Main Street to be a major stock market factor in 2003. Today’s bull market expectations for the DJIA, S&P, and NASDAQ.

Aug 05 1997

What I Worry About

  • Aug 5, 1997

Today’s great bull market has broken most past behavioral guidelines and precedents. It’s a different animal and could terminate as most manias do...with little forewarning and a waterfall decline.

Apr 05 1997

Goldilocks Forever?

  • Apr 5, 1997

The squeeze is on. Lack of corporate pricing power, higher borrowing costs, rising labor costs and the higher dollar will eventually squeeze profit margins. Look out for earnings shortfalls, while analysts catch up to a change in trend.

Jul 07 1983

How This Bull Market Stacks Up

  • Jul 7, 1983

The May issue of this publication featured a month-by-month comparison of all bull markets in this century. Per reader request, we’ve updated the comparison.

Jun 06 1983

Bull Market Dynamics, Inflation Watch & Mutual Fund Mania

  • Jun 6, 1983

An updated graphic and statistical comparison of the current bull market with bull markets of the past. It still appears the current inflation complacency will be upset in coming months. The public is clearly stampeding back into the equity arena, to a large degree via mutual funds.

May 05 1983

Comparing the Bulls

  • May 5, 1983

All bull markets since 1896 are examined and compared with the current specimen in terms of cumulative month by month gains. In terms of dynamics, this is an exceptional market, but hardly unprecedented. Also, all the long sustained uninterrupted uptrends of the past (like those in the 1950’s) are examined. Is this another one of those? We don’t think so. The current specimen has gone too far too fast.

Nov 04 1982

Inside the Stock Market

  • Nov 4, 1982

The market is again exploding on the upside, about to make a new high. Twenty-three years of on-line market experience provides no operational guidelines for a market like this, even though the amplitude of the move and the volume relative to shares listed is not unprecedented.