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Cyclicals

Nov 07 2018

The Rate Hike Carnage Is All Around Us

  • Nov 7, 2018

Taking a cue from the White House, today’s market pundits seem more prone to declarative, unsubstantiated statements than we can ever remember.

Dec 07 2017

The Many Faces Of Mo

  • Dec 7, 2017

Momentum is one of the most widely accepted alpha-generating factors, used by quantitative and fundamental managers alike. Its biggest drawback, however, is high turnover. Herein we explore momentum from the perspective of sector weights.

Sep 08 2017

A Harbor In The Tempest

  • Sep 8, 2017

Our Major Trend Index (MTI) recently fell from “positive” toward stocks to a “neutral” reading, leading us to trim bullish equity positions in our tactical portfolios.

Apr 07 2017

Cyclicals: Tired Of Surprises?

  • Apr 7, 2017

The tone of global economic reports in the last four months has turned decisively up, sending Citi’s Global Economic Surprise Index to the highest level since mid-2010

Apr 07 2016

Has The Hook Been Set?

  • Apr 7, 2016

Two months ago, we suggested a short-term bounce in oil might prove to be the fundamental “hook” that would rationalize a bear market rally. We thought a bounce to $45 might do the trick—and oil futures essentially cooperated, reaching $41.90 on March 22nd.

Apr 07 2016

Growth vs Value vs Cyclicals

  • Apr 7, 2016

Signs of a leadership change are starting to spring up between Growth and Value. Since mid-2015, Mid and Small Cap Value stocks have outperformed Growth.

Mar 08 2016

Where’s The Profit Leverage?

  • Mar 8, 2016

Industrial commodity prices and the latest ISM figures both point to a stabilization in the manufacturing sector following a two-year deceleration. Expectations for this year’s earnings have turned more optimistic as a result, but are the hopes warranted?

Mar 07 2016

Growth vs Value vs Cyclicals

  • Mar 7, 2016

Small Cap Growth stocks have gotten off to a rotten start in 2016—down almost 12%. On a relative basis, the segment has also been lagging Small Cap Value—underperforming by 9% since last July.

Nov 06 2015

Growth vs Value vs Cyclicals

  • Nov 6, 2015

Growth Edges Out Value As Stocks Rebound

Sep 09 2015

The EM "Trap"

  • Sep 9, 2015
We expect EM valuations will undercut their 2008 lows before the current market decline has run its course. That washout might serve up the best stock market bargains in many years.
Sep 09 2015

Growth / Value / Cyclicals

  • Sep 9, 2015

Despite the down market, Large Cap Growth expanded its YTD outperformance over Value—now almost 11%. 

Aug 06 2015

Growth/Value/Cyclicals

  • Aug 6, 2015

Growth Showing No Mercy To Value

Jul 08 2015

Summer Trouble?

  • Jul 8, 2015

New late-June highs in NASDAQ, Small Caps, and key Financial groups weren’t enough to stem the past few weeks’ slide in the Major Trend Index, which has landed back in its neutral zone (1.01 reading).

Jul 08 2015

Growth vs Value vs Cyclicals

  • Jul 8, 2015

First Half Of 2015 All About Growth

Jun 05 2015

It’s Getting Late For the Early Cyclicals

  • Jun 5, 2015

Our “Early Cyclicals” composite continues to perform so well—and at such a late stage in the market cycle—that we should probably consider changing its name. This group, which consists of retail, housing, and auto-related industries, is up 29% in the last eight months after stalling out for the first three quarters of 2014. Its “Late Cyclical” counterpart is up just +5% over the same time frame.

Jun 04 2015

Growth, Value, Cyclicals

  • Jun 4, 2015

Small Cap Growth stocks were the clear outperformers in May, up almost 4%. Growth stocks are still in favor when comparing YTD figures, with the performance gap especially prevalent in the Small and Large Cap spaces.

May 07 2015

Growth, Value, Cyclicals

  • May 7, 2015

Value stocks, recent underachievers, regained some lost ground in April. Large Cap Value was the month’s big winner—helped in large part by rallying energy firms. Large Cap Growth still leads YTD by more than 5%.

Apr 08 2015

Charts That Challenge Us…

  • Apr 8, 2015

While our disciplines continue to turn up enough bullish evidence to keep us cautiously positive toward stocks, we are seeing troubling signs by cyclicals (especially the Transports) and junk bonds.

Apr 07 2015

Growth, Value, Cyclicals

  • Apr 7, 2015

Growth Continues Run In Q1

Mar 06 2015

Growth, Value, Cyclicals

  • Mar 6, 2015

Growth Stocks Dominating Value

Mar 06 2015

New Laggards On The Radar Screen

  • Mar 6, 2015

Transports now find themselves in a three-month RS downtrend; it’s too early to tell if this is an important message. Leading up to 14 of the last 16 bull market tops, Transports underperformed for a six to 12-month period prior to the final bull market high.

Feb 05 2015

Growth/Value/Cyclicals

  • Feb 5, 2015

Momentum Continues For Growth Stocks

Jan 08 2015

Growth, Value, Cyclicals

  • Jan 8, 2015

Growth Strong In Second Half Of 2014

Dec 05 2014

Sector Margin Trends

  • Dec 5, 2014

The S&P 500 record median profit margin of 10.3% is now almost a full percentage point above the last cycle’s peak of 9.4% (second quarter of 2007). Trends across S&P sectors are not as uniform as one might expect, though, with only half of the ten sectors last quarter at profitability levels that exceeded their 2001-2007 expansion highs.

Dec 04 2014

Growth/Value/Cyclicals

  • Dec 4, 2014

Growth Stocks Better In November

Nov 06 2014

Growth vs Value vs Cyclicals

  • Nov 6, 2014

Large Cap Value Left Out Of October Surge

Oct 06 2014

Growth/Value/Cyclicals

  • Oct 6, 2014

Growth Stocks Better In Rough September

Sep 08 2014

Growth/Value/Cyclicals

  • Sep 8, 2014

Large Cap Growth has had an impressive advantage over Large Cap Value in six of the past seven years but that trend is reversing in 2014.

Aug 06 2014

Growth/Value/Cyclicals

  • Aug 6, 2014

Growth And Value Go Down Together

Jul 07 2014

Growth/Value/Cyclicals

  • Jul 7, 2014

Value strong again in Q2.

Jun 06 2014

Growth/Value/Cyclicals

  • Jun 6, 2014

Growth outperformed Value in all market cap subsets: Large Cap, Mid Cap, and Small Cap. It also snapped a five month losing streak with Cyclicals. Despite the reversal, Growth is still lagging YTD, and is extremely undervalued compared to Value.

May 06 2014

Growth/Value/Cyclicals

  • May 6, 2014

In April, Large Cap Value widened its YTD outperformance over Large Growth to 730 bps.

Apr 07 2014

Growth/Value/Cyclicals

  • Apr 7, 2014

Growth Takes It On The Chin In March.

Mar 07 2014

The Bull Market Turns Five

  • Mar 7, 2014

The post-2009 stock market upswing now qualifies as only the sixth cyclical bull market since 1900 to last five years or more. But only three of the previous five-year-old bulls lived to see a sixth birthday.

Mar 06 2014

Growth/Value/Cyclicals

  • Mar 6, 2014

Growth Outperforms Value In February.

Feb 07 2014

Growth/Value/Cyclicals

  • Feb 7, 2014

Small Cap Growth Outperforms (On Relative Basis) In Down Month

Jan 08 2014

Growth/Value/Cyclicals

  • Jan 8, 2014

Growth Stocks Best In All Three Cap Categories.

Dec 06 2013

Growth/Value/Cyclicals Market Internals

  • Dec 6, 2013

Growth Stocks Lead YTD In All Three Cap Categories.

Nov 07 2013

Large Cap Growth Bounces Back The Past Two Months

  • Nov 7, 2013

Growth stocks are now all above their historical average valuation levels. Value stocks are all solidly overvalued compared to their recorded averages.

Nov 07 2013

Cyclical Stocks: Is It Finally Getting “Late?”

  • Nov 7, 2013

There’s no reason to run for cover if the Early Cyclicals have topped out.