10-Year Treasurys
Correlations Are Worthless, Except This One
We’ve never understood investment quants’ desire to project correlations among assets. Such correlations are inherently unstable.
Slowdown Or Recession? Confidence Is Key
The pattern of sharp sell-offs followed by equally sharp rallies continued in June. Most risky assets recouped nearly all the losses suffered in May, and then some.
Where Are Yields Headed? Look In The Mirror!
Many economists believe U.S. economic growth will reaccelerate in the second half, sending 10-year Treasury bond yields back above 3% late in the year. A forecasting technique with an excellent record, however, suggests the return to 3% won’t occur until late next decade!
Signs Of Spring For Financials
Signs of spring are popping up everywhere in the Financials sector. S&P Financials was easily the top- performing sector in April and several sub-industries have been bubbling higher in our Group Selection discipline.
3% Yields Proved To Be High Enough
In September the popular claim was that “interest rates were rising for the right reasons,” and still too low to threaten stocks or U.S. economic expansion.
Market Observations
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It’s been one of the worst years on record for diversification, with our hypothetical All Asset No Authority (AANA) portfolio down 7.2% YTD through yesterday. That’s the second-worst year for AANA since 1972, and there’s probably not enough time left for performance to undercut 2008 (-24.9%) for the bottom spot.
Rates Hurting Households
Doubling of yields since 2016 has slammed households. Percentage increase in rates is more important than the absolute level.
Bond Investors Get It Right Again!
Having devoted all of our professional lives to the monitoring and modeling of equity markets, we’re naturally ticked off that this year’s best stock market signals have in fact been rendered by bonds.
Measuring The Backup In Bond Yields
A couple of months ago, we (belatedly) observed that, in February the 10-year Treasury yield had bro-ken above its 10-year moving average. That simplistic tool has been a pretty good descriptor of yields’ long-term trend for more than a century, with few “whipsaw” signals along the way.
New Highs In Stocks Have Some Unwanted Company
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In recent commentaries, we’ve highlighted the surprising number of U.S. stocks making 52-week lows on both a daily and weekly basis, a sign that the market’s push higher has become more fractured. While pondering the significance of those lows, however, we missed a new 52-week high last Friday in a series we think will be especially critical to the stock market’s near-term fortunes: the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield. Specifically, the yield matched its weekly closing high of 3.07% posted on May 18th.
Another Eulogy For The Bond Bull
In the past year, big-name bond gurus have put forth various yield targets that, if exceeded, would provide definitive proof that the secular bull market in Treasury bonds begun in 1981 had finally ended.
Real Bond Returns: Set To Flatline?
While a plunge into a recession could always result in a final “blow-off” phase to the 35-year secular bull market in bonds, any youthful, long-term buyer of 10-Year Treasurys should weigh that exciting possibility against the odds that bonds do no more than match the inflation rate over the next 30-50 years.
Wanted: A Wrong-Way Economist
The travails of active equity managers have been well-documented throughout the year, but there’s been little attention paid to the 2016 plight of economic forecasters—especially ones unlucky enough to have been accurate.
The “Low Vol” Unwind: Just The Beginning?
In mid-summer we suggested that attaining new market highs would probably require a rotation away from the long-time Low Volatility market leaders and into High Beta areas like Technology and industrial cyclicals.
Who’s Selling Bonds?
Yields on 10-Year U.S. Treasury bonds sunk to an all-time low of 1.37% on July 5th, yet so far there’s been a mysterious absence of contrarians willing to step up to say that “the” secular low in bond yields is at hand.
What Is The Bond Market Telling Us?
We’re tactically bullish, but among the twelve “Charts That Worry Us” published in the April Green Book, we’ll concede there are a few that still worry us.
Strength + Weakness = Weakness?
We like to think our models and indicators help us preserve a high degree of market objectivity. But sometimes we wonder: the latest rally has progressed to the point where we see trouble afoot in both the strongest and weakest charts we can find.