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Advance/Decline

Sep 08 2018

Technical Difficulties

  • Sep 8, 2018

Traditional breadth measures have yet to show end-of-cycle thinning of the ranks, but some secondary measures suggest that process may be underway.

Jul 07 2018

The Bulls And Bears Agree!

  • Jul 7, 2018

Yes, bulls and bears now hold their respective positions for the same reason—i.e., the U.S. economy is exceptionally strong. The stock market is accommodating this rare bipartisanship with sufficient reason to support either position.

Apr 06 2018

Assessing The Selling

  • Apr 6, 2018

While the January 26th bull market high illustrated none of the hallmarks of a major cyclical top, there are secondary signs that a stealthy distribution process may be underway, such as an overwhelming bias toward opening market strength followed by intraday weakness.

Mar 29 2018

Change In Market Character

  • Mar 29, 2018

The Major Trend Index fell into its negative zone last week and we trimmed the already below-average net equity exposure in tactical accounts by a few more points, to a current 41-42%.

Jun 07 2017

Stock Market Observations

  • Jun 7, 2017

After a two-month lull, stock market momentum reasserted itself in May bringing our summer S&P 500 target of 2,600 back into focus… Meanwhile, we’ve fielded several media calls about the “FANG” stocks’ large contribution to some YTD returns—but that doesn’t diminish the new highs being made elsewhere by disparate groups… NYSE Weekly A/D Line and New Highs/Lows figures also suggest the stock market isn’t yet top-heavy enough to tip over.

Apr 07 2017

Stock Market Observations

  • Apr 7, 2017

Second-half results showed the U.S. emerging from the 2015-2016 profit recession, and our early read is that the first quarter should show more of the same.

Feb 07 2017

Stock Market Observations

  • Feb 7, 2017

The Major Trend Index stabilized in a moderately bullish range during the past several weeks, yet the Momentum/Breadth/Divergence category is almost the sole carrier of the bullish torch.

Dec 07 2016

Stock Market Observations

  • Dec 7, 2016

We revisit our “Red Flag Indicator” of prior bull market tops versus today. Usually most of these internal market measures will deteriorate in advance of the final bull market peak. At the latest S&P high, three of the seven leading measures had raised Red Flags, by not confirming, but two of them (DJ Transports and the NYSE A/D Line), are within just ticks of new bull market highs.

Oct 07 2016

Charts: Beware Of Myopia

  • Oct 7, 2016

Despite a two-month stall in the blue chips, the breadth and momentum behind the market’s rally off mid-February lows remain hard to deny.

Sep 08 2016

How Will It All End?

  • Sep 8, 2016

Last month we described ourselves as “long on equities, but light on conviction,” and that description still applies.

Aug 05 2016

Stock Market Breadth: So Good We’re Suspicious

  • Aug 5, 2016

Market breadth measures have been so strong since the February low that we wonder whether something might be wrong with them.

Jul 08 2016

Stock Market Observations

  • Jul 8, 2016

With the S&P 500 levitating near its all-time high, stock market leadership is peculiar—characterized by a flight to quality. And, despite the market’s violent bounce off February lows, there have been only four new market highs set by key indexes on our “Bull Market Top Timeline” table.

Jun 07 2016

Stock Market Observations

  • Jun 7, 2016

Commentators now label this cyclical advance the “seven-year bull market,” but that won’t be semantically true until the S&P 500 closes above its May 2015 peak of 2130.82.

Aug 07 2015

Weakening Foundation

  • Aug 7, 2015

Over the last few months, we’ve presented a couple of simple quantitative studies meant to encapsulate the factors driving our Major Trend Index to the brink of bear territory. The chart and table might provide the best summary yet.

Jun 05 2015

Two Takes On Market Breadth

  • Jun 5, 2015

Market technicians continue to argue that a bull market peak is unlikely to form with the majority of U.S. stocks (and global ones, for that matter) still participating in the new highs of the blue chip indexes.

Jun 05 2015

Penny Wise, Pound Foolish?

  • Jun 5, 2015

The Wall Street technical crowd remains mostly bullish, in large part because breadth accompanying this year’s new high has been decent. We follow the same figures and can’t dismiss their point. But pundits whose market views are heavily reliant upon the NYSE breadth figures should be aware of a strong upside bias that’s existed in the data since around 2001.

Apr 08 2015

What The Market Tells Us About Fed Policy

  • Apr 8, 2015

Poor performance in 2014 by two typical victims of Fed tightening—Consumer Discretionary and Small Caps—corroborated our argument that “tapering” is tightening.

Nov 07 2014

What To Make Of Market Leadership

  • Nov 7, 2014

The renewed embrace of risk hasn’t extended to the sector level. After resisting decline in late September through mid-October, defensive sectors have matched the rebound in Cyclicals, almost point for point.

Aug 07 2014

Market Internals—Breadth Weakness Troubling But Not Dire

  • Aug 7, 2014

Remember that peaks in market breadth tend to lead peaks in the S&P 500 by at least a few months.

Jul 08 2014

Market “Externals” Versus “Internals”

  • Jul 8, 2014

The breadth of new market highs across multiple market indexes illustrates beyond a doubt that the stock market is “externally” in gear, but some analysts contend the market is showing “internal” signs of weakness.

Nov 07 2013

Little To Complain About

  • Nov 7, 2013

From a pure price action perspective, it’s difficult to find cracks in the bull market’s edifice.

Aug 07 2013

“Immature” Market Behavior

  • Aug 7, 2013

Whether one considers the post-2008 upswing two bull markets or one ultimately matters only to those who (like us) enjoy cataloging such things. But labeling the 2011-2013 rally a new bull market would certainly explain some of the “immature” behavior exhibited by U.S. stocks in recent months.

Feb 06 2013

Ringing In The New Year On A Wide Range Of Topics

  • Feb 6, 2013

Did we just get a Technical “all clear” sign? Is the trading day getting you down? What about corporate earnings, or sovereign debt and the stock market?

 

Nov 06 2012

Is The Glass “Half Full”?

  • Nov 6, 2012

A “dozen” major market measures have moved to new bull market highs in the last three months. But many of these have been the groups that do best when “risk” is “off,” and may be a reason “Ain’t Nobody Happy,” even in an up year. 

Jul 05 2011

Yet Another Breadth Blastoff

  • Jul 5, 2011

Another breadth blastoff gives us reasons for optimism that our bullish predictions for the end of the year will hold.

Dec 05 2009

A Thinning Of The Ranks

  • Dec 5, 2009

Market breadth has weakened considerably, which has historically been a big negative for stocks. However, the lead time between peaks in market breadth and eventual bull market peaks are long and variable.

 

Jul 04 2008

Small Caps Succumbing

  • Jul 4, 2008

Why have Small Caps been outperforming Large Caps since January?

Aug 05 2007

A Sudden Case Of Bad Breadth

  • Aug 5, 2007

Deteriorating stock market breadth was one of the factors contributing to the overall decline in the Major Trend Index to Negative status. An examination of the current Advance/Decline Lines shows the fade is continuing, and is particularly prevalent in the small cap indices.

Sep 05 2006

Breadth Is Lagging…..But It Can Lag For a Long Time Before The Market Rolls Over

  • Sep 5, 2006

Market breadth improving, but still relatively weak. Narrowing breadth can, however, persist for a long time. There was a two year period of diverging breadth in 1998 to 1999, prior to the last bear market.

Dec 04 2005

November’s Rally Accompanied By Weak Market Breadth

  • Dec 4, 2005

The market rally in November, which carried many indexes to new highs, was not as broad-based as we like to see, but Breadth did improve some later in the month.

Jul 04 2005

Advance/Decline Line & Price Line Divergences Offer Guidance

  • Jul 4, 2005

Using Breadth Dynamics to assess strength of small cap stocks versus large cap stocks within various broad market sectors: Health Care, Materials, Consumer Discretionary, and Energy.

Apr 05 2005

Narrowing Of Breadth Among Small Caps

  • Apr 5, 2005

Leuthold Group specialized Advance/Decline Lines indicate fading breadth among Small Caps.

Oct 05 2004

Stock Market Breadth Continues To Be Impressive

  • Oct 5, 2004

Market breadth using Advance/Decline Lines looks very bullish for stocks.

Sep 04 2001

For The Technicians

  • Sep 4, 2001

Examining some of the impacts that decimalization and the inclusion of financial derivatives may have on the NYSE Advance/Decline Line & ARMs Index.

May 05 2001

Market Breadth Update

  • May 5, 2001

Based on the weekly Advance/Decline line, market breadth has improved considerably. This is evidence of a much stronger underlying stock market than the S&P 500 and other measures might indicate.

Apr 03 2001

Market Breadth Update

  • Apr 3, 2001

Despite the market’s weakness in March, the breadth experienced some deterioration in the last half of the month.

Jun 04 2000

Earnings Data Signaling Slowdown Ahead?

  • Jun 4, 2000

Earnings Momentum appears to have slipped some in Q1. Peak earnings momentum now behind us. Expect slowdown, as economy cools and cost pressures heat up.

Aug 05 1998

Is 1998 Like 1987?

  • Aug 5, 1998

Comparing 1987 versus 1997 and 1998 Advance/Decline lines: 1987’s actually didn’t look nearly as bad as today’s.

Oct 05 1997

Octophobia? 1997 Is Not Like 1987 in Two Important Ways

  • Oct 5, 1997

Octophobia…but October 1997 is not at all like October 1987. In 1997, the Advance/Decline line has continued “in gear” with the S&P 500, whereas in 1987, the A/D line peaked out five months before August 1987’s peak.

Sep 05 1997

View From the North Country

  • Sep 5, 1997

Is Warren Buffett doing some very significant selling? I think this might be the case. Leuthold Group three part series on deflation will be sent to clients in September and October. Also, the 10th Anniversary of 1987’s stock market peak: two important “then” and “now” comparisons.