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Leading Economic Indicators

Sep 07 2019

Monetary Madness

  • Sep 7, 2019

We always do our own work and draw our own conclusions. Lately, though, we’ve wondered what the late “Monetary Marty” Zweig might say about the stock market’s current liquidity backdrop.

Aug 30 2019

Is A Strengthening Dollar A Form Of Policy Tightening?

  • Aug 30, 2019

Executive summary (for those leaving early for the holiday weekend): No.

We’ve found no reliable relationship between swings in the U.S. Dollar and subsequent variations in U.S. economic growth.

Jul 04 2019

Slowdown Or Recession? Confidence Is Key

  • Jul 4, 2019

The pattern of sharp sell-offs followed by equally sharp rallies continued in June. Most risky assets recouped nearly all the losses suffered in May, and then some.

Jan 08 2019

About That Great Jobs Report...

  • Jan 8, 2019

The December employment report temporarily eased fears of a severe U.S. slowdown. That’s a mystery to us.

Nov 07 2018

Too Soon To Expect Economic Weakness?

  • Nov 7, 2018

We believe stocks have begun to discount a major inflection point in the economy and corporate profits for 2019 and 2020.

May 05 2018

Cashing In On The LEI?

  • May 5, 2018

The consensus view is that the stock market will be fine as long as there’s no recession in sight.The same LEI that has displayed a fine GDP forecasting record has shown essentially no relationship with S&P 500 forward twelve-month performance. In fact the regression line shows a slight negative slope!

Feb 07 2018

Market Pressure Points?

  • Feb 7, 2018

Last month we detailed a handful of economic and monetary measures that were approaching critical thresholds from a stock market perspective.

Oct 06 2017

Better To Have And Not Need

  • Oct 6, 2017

"Need To Have” confirming indexes were nearly all perfectly aligned with the latest market high, and a second set of indexes we consider less critical, but “Nice To Have,” has also been in virtual lockstep.

Jun 05 2007

Keep An Eye On The LEI – Leading Indicators Have Topped, But Have Yet To Roll Over

  • Jun 5, 2007

The Index of Leading Economic Indicators has a proven track record of indicating when a recession may be near. Although this index has been trending sideways for quite some time, it has not yet rolled over.

Nov 03 2004

Keep In Front Of The Economic Curve

  • Nov 3, 2004

Stock market is a leading economic indicator, and typically turns down before the economy turns down. On average, 40% of the stock market decline occurs before the recession begins.

Mar 05 2002

A Bumpy Road To Recovery

  • Mar 5, 2002

Market begins to shake off “Enronitis” and as economic positives continue, the next rally could come quickly. And yes, it was a recession.

Feb 05 2002

Market Timing With The Index Of Leading Economic Indicators

  • Feb 5, 2002

Index of Leading Economic Indicators, a good coincident indicator for the stock market. Looks like it’s on the mend.

Oct 05 1997

View From the North Country

  • Oct 5, 1997

Stock market still considered lead economic indicator? Maybe not, considering the last three years, the stock market has been driven by Main Street. Changing role of portfolio managers: risk management function reduced to minimum if it even exists at all.

Nov 05 1996

The Stock Market and the Economy: Lead and Lag Relationships

  • Nov 5, 1996

In past issues, we have postulated that the next major stock market decline would not precede an economic downturn as it typically has in the past. Rather, the relationship would be coincidental, with the stock market and the economy turning down at about the same time.